Commodity Trading Blunders IV, PART 2 - My Early Days As A Novice Trader
While we’re on the subject, let’s talk about commodity trading systems, seminars, books, advertisements, computer programs, and ads on the web offering to make you rich. It’s easy, right? Just throw $30,000 at these offers and you’re bound to find what you need. Everybody is looking for the "Holy Grail," but the truth is it doesn't exist because it's always changing.
A commodity trading system may hit 100% for short periods, but then falls apart when the market changes. Unfortunately, perhaps less than 1% of the stuff offered for sale will give you the tools you need to be a consistently profitable trader. Maybe less. And much depends on what you do with it. It will probably do you more harm than good. Bad habits are hard to break. You will be depending on commodity trading programs and systems written by someone else instead of yourself.
We need to take full responsibility for our trading results. Blaming failure on the latest black box will get you nowhere. I’ve attended many seminars. And each time I thought, “this is it!” But sadly, (or perhaps happily!) the only commodity methods and systems I use today are the ones I created myself. And all of them came from within. They don’t always work with all markets. In fact, I have to keep rotating them to find what method to use in which futures market. But that’s because the futures markets are always changing. Forever.
That’s where new traders get lost. They think there is a rigid method or system that will always work – somewhere out there for a price. The truth is that even Max’s 10-day moving average is a killer system when the market is trending in perfect 10 MA fashion. And it happens. For a given market and time frame, a commodity futures trader needs both a short-term and long-term timing method. They are to be used together. We need to know the main trend and trade within it. The main ocean tide is coming in and we want to ride the smaller waves. But watch out for the stormy, choppy seas, also.
We need various trading indicators and tools to make us feel comfortable. We need a way of measuring futures selling panics and buying panics. This is the key to positioning yourself. Most moves work off the previous high or low climax. If it’s a “blood running in the streets” climax low, then expect the following move up to be capable of going far. If the bottom was a dull, lazy, comfortable affair, be ready for a dull rally and possibly a break to new lows before a good rally can occur. This trading technique does not always work, of course. It's just another sign of a high probability trade coming up.
I feel another good method for a commodity trading novice is using cycles. They don’t always work, but they give us a feel for the ebb and flow of the futures market. Getting a feel for the rhythm is important to keep one from the comfortable habit of buying the top of a rally or selling the bottom of a decline. You are less apt to sell into a big bottom if you are paying close attention to cycles of all time frames.
Part Three of Four - Next!
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
A commodity trading system may hit 100% for short periods, but then falls apart when the market changes. Unfortunately, perhaps less than 1% of the stuff offered for sale will give you the tools you need to be a consistently profitable trader. Maybe less. And much depends on what you do with it. It will probably do you more harm than good. Bad habits are hard to break. You will be depending on commodity trading programs and systems written by someone else instead of yourself.
We need to take full responsibility for our trading results. Blaming failure on the latest black box will get you nowhere. I’ve attended many seminars. And each time I thought, “this is it!” But sadly, (or perhaps happily!) the only commodity methods and systems I use today are the ones I created myself. And all of them came from within. They don’t always work with all markets. In fact, I have to keep rotating them to find what method to use in which futures market. But that’s because the futures markets are always changing. Forever.
That’s where new traders get lost. They think there is a rigid method or system that will always work – somewhere out there for a price. The truth is that even Max’s 10-day moving average is a killer system when the market is trending in perfect 10 MA fashion. And it happens. For a given market and time frame, a commodity futures trader needs both a short-term and long-term timing method. They are to be used together. We need to know the main trend and trade within it. The main ocean tide is coming in and we want to ride the smaller waves. But watch out for the stormy, choppy seas, also.
We need various trading indicators and tools to make us feel comfortable. We need a way of measuring futures selling panics and buying panics. This is the key to positioning yourself. Most moves work off the previous high or low climax. If it’s a “blood running in the streets” climax low, then expect the following move up to be capable of going far. If the bottom was a dull, lazy, comfortable affair, be ready for a dull rally and possibly a break to new lows before a good rally can occur. This trading technique does not always work, of course. It's just another sign of a high probability trade coming up.
I feel another good method for a commodity trading novice is using cycles. They don’t always work, but they give us a feel for the ebb and flow of the futures market. Getting a feel for the rhythm is important to keep one from the comfortable habit of buying the top of a rally or selling the bottom of a decline. You are less apt to sell into a big bottom if you are paying close attention to cycles of all time frames.
Part Three of Four - Next!
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
While we’re on the subject, let’s talk about commodity trading systems, seminars, books, advertisements, computer programs, and ads on the web offering to make you rich. It’s easy, right? Just throw $30,000 at these offers and you’re bound to find what you need. Everybody is looking for the "Holy Grail," but the truth is it doesn't exist because it's always changing.
A commodity trading system may hit 100% for short periods, but then falls apart when the market changes. Unfortunately, perhaps less than 1% of the stuff offered for sale will give you the tools you need to be a consistently profitable trader. Maybe less. And much depends on what you do with it. It will probably do you more harm than good. Bad habits are hard to break. You will be depending on commodity trading programs and systems written by someone else instead of yourself.
We need to take full responsibility for our trading results. Blaming failure on the latest black box will get you nowhere. I’ve attended many seminars. And each time I thought, “this is it!” But sadly, (or perhaps happily!) the only commodity methods and systems I use today are the ones I created myself. And all of them came from within. They don’t always work with all markets. In fact, I have to keep rotating them to find what method to use in which futures market. But that’s because the futures markets are always changing. Forever.
That’s where new traders get lost. They think there is a rigid method or system that will always work – somewhere out there for a price. The truth is that even Max’s 10-day moving average is a killer system when the market is trending in perfect 10 MA fashion. And it happens. For a given market and time frame, a commodity futures trader needs both a short-term and long-term timing method. They are to be used together. We need to know the main trend and trade within it. The main ocean tide is coming in and we want to ride the smaller waves. But watch out for the stormy, choppy seas, also.
We need various trading indicators and tools to make us feel comfortable. We need a way of measuring futures selling panics and buying panics. This is the key to positioning yourself. Most moves work off the previous high or low climax. If it’s a “blood running in the streets” climax low, then expect the following move up to be capable of going far. If the bottom was a dull, lazy, comfortable affair, be ready for a dull rally and possibly a break to new lows before a good rally can occur. This trading technique does not always work, of course. It's just another sign of a high probability trade coming up.
I feel another good method for a commodity trading novice is using cycles. They don’t always work, but they give us a feel for the ebb and flow of the futures market. Getting a feel for the rhythm is important to keep one from the comfortable habit of buying the top of a rally or selling the bottom of a decline. You are less apt to sell into a big bottom if you are paying close attention to cycles of all time frames.
Part Three of Four - Next!
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
A commodity trading system may hit 100% for short periods, but then falls apart when the market changes. Unfortunately, perhaps less than 1% of the stuff offered for sale will give you the tools you need to be a consistently profitable trader. Maybe less. And much depends on what you do with it. It will probably do you more harm than good. Bad habits are hard to break. You will be depending on commodity trading programs and systems written by someone else instead of yourself.
We need to take full responsibility for our trading results. Blaming failure on the latest black box will get you nowhere. I’ve attended many seminars. And each time I thought, “this is it!” But sadly, (or perhaps happily!) the only commodity methods and systems I use today are the ones I created myself. And all of them came from within. They don’t always work with all markets. In fact, I have to keep rotating them to find what method to use in which futures market. But that’s because the futures markets are always changing. Forever.
That’s where new traders get lost. They think there is a rigid method or system that will always work – somewhere out there for a price. The truth is that even Max’s 10-day moving average is a killer system when the market is trending in perfect 10 MA fashion. And it happens. For a given market and time frame, a commodity futures trader needs both a short-term and long-term timing method. They are to be used together. We need to know the main trend and trade within it. The main ocean tide is coming in and we want to ride the smaller waves. But watch out for the stormy, choppy seas, also.
We need various trading indicators and tools to make us feel comfortable. We need a way of measuring futures selling panics and buying panics. This is the key to positioning yourself. Most moves work off the previous high or low climax. If it’s a “blood running in the streets” climax low, then expect the following move up to be capable of going far. If the bottom was a dull, lazy, comfortable affair, be ready for a dull rally and possibly a break to new lows before a good rally can occur. This trading technique does not always work, of course. It's just another sign of a high probability trade coming up.
I feel another good method for a commodity trading novice is using cycles. They don’t always work, but they give us a feel for the ebb and flow of the futures market. Getting a feel for the rhythm is important to keep one from the comfortable habit of buying the top of a rally or selling the bottom of a decline. You are less apt to sell into a big bottom if you are paying close attention to cycles of all time frames.
Part Three of Four - Next!
There is substantial risk of loss trading futures and options and may not be suitable for all types of investors. Only risk capital should be used.
posted by zzzzzzzzzzz at
9:58 PM
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