Saturday, December 16, 2006

Earnings Season: To Hold Or Not To Hold, That Is The Question

Holding a stock (day or swing) trade into earnings can very often lead to some fairly large profits. However, it can also lead to some very large disasters…so large that it just may be the last trade you ever make.

When I was still an active day trader and now as moderator of Daytraders.com, I have witnessed both sides of this phenomenon from each perspective. I have lost big and was lucky enough to catch a few winners. Yet, after years of experience, observation and unscientific analysis of this practice, it is my opinion that I was just that…lucky.

First of all, holding overnight or even a few hours during the day waiting for an earnings report has removed you from a pure day trader status to a swing trader. There are merits of both methods of trading, which is fodder for a future article. Moreover, I will mention, that as common sense would suggest, that the longer you hold a stock as a trader, the more apt it is to move against you.

Most people, including most analysts, don’t really knows what is going to happen until the company releases their earnings. Sure, there are a lot of folks that will profess to be a genius at predicting such things, but I haven’t seen it. In fact, I have yet to see anyone really much more accurate, if any, than that famous sitcom parrot that used to pick stocks using the Wall Street Journal lining the bottom of his birdcage. Yes, I said parrot, as in, “Polly wants a cracker!’
Holding a stock (day or swing) trade into earnings can very often lead to some fairly large profits. However, it can also lead to some very large disasters…so large that it just may be the last trade you ever make.

When I was still an active day trader and now as moderator of Daytraders.com, I have witnessed both sides of this phenomenon from each perspective. I have lost big and was lucky enough to catch a few winners. Yet, after years of experience, observation and unscientific analysis of this practice, it is my opinion that I was just that…lucky.

First of all, holding overnight or even a few hours during the day waiting for an earnings report has removed you from a pure day trader status to a swing trader. There are merits of both methods of trading, which is fodder for a future article. Moreover, I will mention, that as common sense would suggest, that the longer you hold a stock as a trader, the more apt it is to move against you.

Most people, including most analysts, don’t really knows what is going to happen until the company releases their earnings. Sure, there are a lot of folks that will profess to be a genius at predicting such things, but I haven’t seen it. In fact, I have yet to see anyone really much more accurate, if any, than that famous sitcom parrot that used to pick stocks using the Wall Street Journal lining the bottom of his birdcage. Yes, I said parrot, as in, “Polly wants a cracker!’

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